It is not unusual for me to spend many hours late at night pouring over statistics so I can confidently give an informed opinion on the state of our market in the Hudson Valley. For me it’s like putting a puzzle together, it reveals a picture which I then project into the future based on research and trends analysis to come to a conclusion. Reviewing area market conditions with your realtor is an important exchange of information so you can make an infomed decision. The data I am reporting here came from the Ulster County MLS service and I believe it reflects the trends of what is happening in Greene, Columbia and Northern Duchess as well.
January 1 to March 31, Ist quarter, 2010 vs 2011
2010 # of homes listed- 977 # of homes sold- 239 average sale price- $241,000 list/sale price ratio- 93.45% % of listed homes sold-24.46%
2011 # of homes listed- 792 # of homes sold- 207 average sale price- $$256,000 list/sale price ration- 92.32% % of listed homes sold-26.14%
So… a little surprise that the number of buyers was down but a better surprise that the average sale price was up. Another trend to note was the number of listings that sold relative to the inventory that came on the market was higher at 26% in 2011 up from 24% , that is an indicator or the absorption rate which means a higher number means the inventory will sell faster. List to sale price ratio is a wider gap which says the sellers and buyers are negotiating a little more in the buyers favor than in the previous year. This may not seem like it warrants a celebration but if we remember back to last year in the first quarter the federal government was giving the first time home buyer tax credit. It pushed buyers who were going to buy accelerate the process and fueled a typically sluggish 1st quarter. This year although the amount of buyers are down I am convinced it is because of the rush for the tax credit last year, the fact that sale prices are up is the best news we could hope for. I feel it is safe to say the residential market is flat, the bottom is either here or near, the evidence is when we look at the volume figures which is down 5% but the average sale price which is up just shy of 5%.
Residential/Multi Family 2010 volume $116,551,000
2011 volume $110,513,000
It is my opinion we are in for an increase in mortgage rates soon now that the market is seemingly recovering in much of the country. Investors have been out there picking up foreclosures recently and builders are starting to come out of hiding. All those who have just held off to see if there is going to be another big dip and have money burning in their pockets are starting to take real estate seriously again, we are seeing the high-end of the market move substantially. I predict that unless there is some force or serious economic bomb we will stay this course for a while with the market just hovering and making a slow and gradual comeback. The good thing is everyone has gotten a little wiser and all parties involved in a transaction are acting more responsibly. The darkness is behind us and the light is on the horizon.